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Aouad, G F, Kirkham, J A, Brandon, P S, Brown, F E, Cooper, G S, Ford, S R, Oxman, R E, Sarshar, M and Young, B A (1993) Information modelling in the construction industry: the information engineering approach. Construction Management and Economics, 11(05), 384-97.

Chau, K W (1993) Estimating industry-level productivity trends in the building industry from building cost and price data. Construction Management and Economics, 11(05), 370-83.

Kodikara, G W and McCaffer, R (1993) Flow of estimating data in Sri Lankan building contractor organizations. Construction Management and Economics, 11(05), 341-6.

Koo, T K and Tiong, R L K (1993) An expert system for assessing the performance of RC beams and slabs. Construction Management and Economics, 11(05), 347-57.

Langford, D A, Iyagba, R and Komba, D M (1993) Prediction of solvency in construction companies. Construction Management and Economics, 11(05), 317-25.

Ranasinghe, M and Russell, A D (1993) Elicitation of subjective probabilities for economic risk analysis: An investigation. Construction Management and Economics, 11(05), 326-40.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: decomposition; economic risk analysis; elicitation technique; questionnaire; subjective probability
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199300000037
  • Abstract:

    This paper investigates three major issues regarding the elicitation of expert knowledge for economic risk analysis:(1) recognition of some of the implicit assumptions and beliefs;(2) development of an approach to elicit expert knowledge as accurate, calibrated and coherent subjective probabilities; and (3) a study to explore human ability to predict future events and the validity of the implicit assumptions and beliefs in the context of the expert judgements. The proposed elicitation approach combines the theoretical requirements for valid subjective probabilities with a practical process. The recognition that some of the implicit assumptions and beliefs in engineering risk analysis should be explored when dealing with the human ability to predict future events, and the inherent difficulties in developing experiments and methods to test such beliefs are some of the benefits of the study. Directions for future work are suggested.

Scott, S (1993) The nature and effects of construction delays. Construction Management and Economics, 11(05), 358-69.

Tan, R R and Chang, D S (1993) The formulation of performance indicators in evaluating the implementation of automation in the construction industry. Construction Management and Economics, 11(05), 398-403.